Yesterday, the President did exactly what he told us he was going to do, and he initiated a broad-based scheme of tariffs that greatly increase what we will charge other nations’ businesses to introduce their goods/services/raw materials into our country. Were these costs to be borne solely by those purveyors in those nations, there would likely be far less of a collective freakout (here, at least). But those costs will not be borne solely by those purveyors, as doing so would necessarily diminish their profits. Some portion of the price increase will come out of profit, but the rest will come out of the pockets of American consumers who will pay more for products they desire.
That the President has the authority to essentially raise taxes across the board on every American citizen without the assent of Congress is not his fault, it is Congress’s fault (did I spell that right?). In a sane world with a sane President, tariffs would be targeted and temporary, and a trustworthy President could potentially be responsible for implementing them. But as in so many other ways, our Founders did not account for someone like the current President, nor did it account for a Congress that has so thoroughly repudiated its own authorities. So here we are with an untrustworthy President executing responsibilities seconded to him by a legislature uninterested in doing its job.
We are told by our political leaders that tariffs are a good thing, that this will punish nations that have taken advantage of us over the years. They further assure us that whatever downside flowing from the move will be offset by the benefit of the incentive for Americans to produce the higher (relatively) priced imported item right here in the US of A.
That other nations have sold us things we freely desire has never struck me as a particularly bad thing. The fact that they believe there to be an incentive structure created that will foster US manufacturing is tacit acknowledgement that prices will invariably rise. Where there is a difference of opinion is in who will pay those higher prices. Again—virtually every sane person and all sane economists in the world say that consumers pay these premiums. Some are calling it the largest tax increase in the nation’s history (which is how I see it). The wing-nuts in the White House believe some shadowy entity on the other side of the world will pay. It simply makes no sense.
But—you say—what if Trump is right? I guess that all comes down to what your definition of “right” is. If this gambit causes nations across the earth (not Russia, natch, as they aren’t targeted) to lower the tariffs WE pay on exporting goods to them, then there would be goodness. That said, there are two problems here. First, I’m just not sure that nations won’t simply increase their tariffs against us, leading to an international trade war that would be ruinous to our economy. But let’s suspend disbelief and assume that all in all, tariffs DO come down in some areas. What happens then? In the areas where they remain, EVEN IF the U.S. decided to kickstart domestic industry, the time lag from flash to bang will be years, if not decades. And where the tariffs come down, there will be little incentive to replace those goods domestically. The suggestion that Trump is in this for the long haul, that he is trying to fundamentally remake the American economy—goes against everything we know about this man. NOTHING is long haul for him. Everything is contingent. Everything is transactional. Everything is near term.
So What Happens Now?
I am the world’s worst Trump predictor. The only prediction about the man that I have gotten right was that Biden would beat him in 2020, but I think that was sort of a layup. Every other time—I’ve been wrong. So I urge you to apply appropriate discounts to what I am saying. All of these assumptions flow from an understanding that the overall bulk of what the President announced yesterday remains unchanged by 31 December 2025.
The U.S. Economy will be in recession by 31 December 2025.
The S&P 500 will be 20% less than it was at closing on 4/1/2025
President Trump’s approval rating will be below 30%.
If two of three of these things come to pass, Trump and Trumpism are finished. No, there is not going to be a mass flipping of dyed in the wool Trumpkins. That will never happen. Those who are most committed to the MAGA atmosphere will be utterly unable to face the magnitude of their errors, and so they will be the “dead-enders” of Trumpism.
What will happen is that the fellow travelers will turn, and they will turn heavily. I call these folks the “Grey Flannel Trumpenproletariat”, in that they don’t publicly identify with Trump, but they are just happy enough with his stance on cultural issues and immigration that they pulled the lever in his favor in 2024. These people—whose darkness was networked into the larger whole—will take a serious hit in their pocketbook through both higher inflation and lower portfolio value, and they will lose interest in the constant chaos.
Once Trump starts to lose these folks, the power of his coalition will diminish, and more and more Republicans will find political profit in standing up to him. Whereas today, he “doth bestride the narrow world” of the GOP like a Colossus, he and his Nationalist Populist movement will lose the 2026 midterms—badly—and Republicans will find it VERY difficult to win the Presidency in 2028.
Of course, for the Democrats to win the Presidency in 2028, they’ll have to find the right candidate, and I have a suspicion that PA Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly will be primed and ready for that race.
I see the political end to this man, and it will have come about by his own actions.