Midday Thursday 3 October, I delivered these remarks (or something very close to it) at the Sarasota/Bradenton Navy League Celebration of the Navy’s 249th Birthday.
I have watched young people saddled with debt from attending college with no clear path to repay that debt much less built a life. At the end of my college experience I was broke but not burdened with any debt. Certainly different times. You are correct that we have ignored skilled trades as a career path and something needs to be done to right the ship. Encouraging young people to consider other avenues of learning has become a passion of myself and several other seasoned gentleman who see the folly in what has taken place. It’s a drop in the bucket to the problem but it’s something.
Today we celebrate our grandson 9th birthday. His grandmother and I have contributed to his “college fund” since his birth with the caveat that college could have a different meaning and path then when we were of that age. Only time will tell.
As it pertains to INDOPACOM What worries me the most is the gutting of our Maritime Prepositioning, and Military Sealift capability.
The blunder of the "trident pier" off Gaza is an example of a failure in readiness. Primarily the decision making and planners. That ability has been done successfully thousands of times. Usually not on a beach on the open ocean. Any E-3 that works in that MOS/ Rate could have foreseen how stupid that was.
We have NOT had to deal with real Contested Logistics against a formidable enemy since WW2. And we WILL need it in the 1st and 2nd Island Chains. Ive heard it called "the tyranny of water" and "Tyranny of distance". Last March I met and listened to AF LtGen Jaqueline Van Ovost CG of Transportation Command. I believe she is over confident in the capability of her part of the puzzle. Airlift alone will NOT get the job.
We will need many different capabilities and partner Nations all working together toward a common goal. That in itself is "Integrated Deterrence".
Unfortunately we have failed to achieve "deterence" in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Bab El-Mandeb Straight. Iran using thier proxy Houthi have managed to essentially hijack shipping in the region and affect global trade. Simply using remote controlled airplanes, boats (calling them drones is a bit of a stretch) and homemade rockets. Add in the record breaking ballistic missile strikes by Iran on Israel and it is clear that they are NOT deterred. Endless pleas from The Biden Admin and Pentagon for us, our partners, and Israel to "not escalate" tensions. In my Military Mind, escalation occurred on Oct 7th 2023. Never mind 40+ years of Iran being a state sponsor of terror. And Israel eating rockets daily since the 1970's.
We recently had the USS Big Horn run aground and announcing to our enemies that if they take out an oiler (especially when its the only one in the AOR) they can cripple a Carrier Strike Group, Amphib Ready Group, Exped. Strike Group. It is a sign of weakness. Thats why deterrence isnt working. Thats how you lose a war.
The most important element of deterrence is the WILL TO FIGHT. When the enemy knows you wont strike hard and decisively, they know they have you by the balls.
So many very good points here. I may be scheduled to deliver a presentation on the importance of American Sea Power here locally, early next year. With your permission Bryan, I will shamelessly pitch this article and use elements thereof in my presentation. Properly attributed of course.
Thanks for putting forward an honest assessment and analyses. Nothing to add to already excellent cooments. I appreciate the quality work you're doing to advise and inform the government and public. 👍
When I arrived at CincPacFlt in 1981 for a tour of duty my new boss, an O-5 EA-6B NFO, asked if I could state to him the mission of the Navy. The Commander was a great guy and rescued me from my deer in the headlights moment and told me, "Prompt and sustained combat operations at sea in support of national policy". I had 16 years in and was a Senior Chief. That was an "aha!" moment for me in realizing how clueless I was of big picture things. I think I was typical of my peers...Big Picture things just never percolated down to our level and maybe we were too busy to ask. But what a fun and rewarding tour that was.
The U S Navy must have sufficient logistic ships, craft, boats, aircraft, and vehicles (amphibious, all terrain etc,etc) to support the fleet, its bases and facilities, or face mission failure. Prompt, sustained, unrestricted, continuous lethal attrition by the enemy must met. Nowhere is safe. Ever. Si vis pachem...para bellum. We are not ready enough. War is, like winter in Alaska, inevitable. As is surprise, stupidity, lethal naivety, wishful thinking, and hubris. Otherwise, great speech to a great audience.
Great Speech Bryan. I hope they gave you a standing ovation and inundated you with questions about how we can reduce carrier strike group vulnerabilities (like adding 10 more and complicating the enemy's targeting)... Well done
Bryan, Excellent speech. Sarasota is my hometown, although it has grown so much I hardly recognize it anymore. I agree wholeheartedly with your analysis and think we must continue beat the drum for those who don't understand the criticality of our maritime interests. A couple of things that I continue to emphasize, especially for those in the Congress and Government that don't fully appreciate the value of forward deployed naval presence. First, regarding the continued criticality of Aircraft Carriers and their attendant strike group asserts, they not only bring naval presence in a very visible way that allow our political leadership send stabilizing messages to conflict areas of the world, they are the first responders in crisis. Long range strike assets from the US can't do that effectively. There is no option for the effective combat and strike capability out there. Second, the ESG of today is tremendously more capable than what you and I had available in the late 1990's and first part of this century. The F-35B alone as an addition to the LHA/LHD big deck adds a host of high tech capabilities they did not have before. This sea change in combat power, however creates additional force structure challenges as ESG's become greater threats. We need to add DDG included IAMD, ASW, and ASUW (to include anti surface/subsurface drones) to its defenses. Third, continued focus on force integration with our joint forces and especially our allied maritime partners is essential in all three areas of the world you discuss. It is the best way to mitigate the 150 ship shortage you highlight. It doesn't mean replace, it means short term mitigation. We are in a world today that will continue to expand in the complexity of maritime operations. We will need all the help we can get to support our national defense. Finally, to address the pervading ignorance and lack of experience we are witnessing in the Congress and parts of the Executive Branch we must counter the growing isolationist trends we are seeing. We must aggressively educate and promote people for elected office who have served in the military and understand its contributions to our National Defense. Bottom line: NATO is essential to our national defense and continued strengthening of our bilateral agreements with India-Pacific Allies remains critical. Better yet, developing strong multi-lateral ties in the Pacific will continue to improve our National Defense in the west. Press on. Continue the great work.
Bryan: With reference to your discussion on the mission of the Navy, I’d like to refer your readership to the DON’s Strategic Concept published in 1994, “Forward…From the Sea.” That document defined the Navy’s mission across the spectrum of crisis and conflict. The premium was deploying forward and demonstrating transoceanic reach and credible combat capability to friends and likely foes. It was meant to inform the Roles and Missions review, mandated by Congress at the time, and to move beyond “From the Sea” which had truncated our mission to Power projection and Littoral warfare.
As to the industrial base, I am familiar with our current capability and capacity. We will not improve either, absent a concerted effort to build commercial vessels, restoring our merchant marine, and encouraging more competition in the construction of warships. This will require reopenIng shuttered dual use shipyards and subsidizing commercial shipbuilding to offset domestic cost premiums. As important, perhaps in partnership with key states, we will have to make a national investment in apprentice programs for shipbuilders modeled on the Job Corps. Funding these priorities is a monumental challenge for a debt ridden economy, but we might draw on the misapplied billions in the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act for starters.
I expect you have expounded on how the Navy works with our allies' Navys. If so, I would like a repeat. Our world wide burden should not be ours alone to bear. The world is a big place.
I have watched young people saddled with debt from attending college with no clear path to repay that debt much less built a life. At the end of my college experience I was broke but not burdened with any debt. Certainly different times. You are correct that we have ignored skilled trades as a career path and something needs to be done to right the ship. Encouraging young people to consider other avenues of learning has become a passion of myself and several other seasoned gentleman who see the folly in what has taken place. It’s a drop in the bucket to the problem but it’s something.
Today we celebrate our grandson 9th birthday. His grandmother and I have contributed to his “college fund” since his birth with the caveat that college could have a different meaning and path then when we were of that age. Only time will tell.
As it pertains to INDOPACOM What worries me the most is the gutting of our Maritime Prepositioning, and Military Sealift capability.
The blunder of the "trident pier" off Gaza is an example of a failure in readiness. Primarily the decision making and planners. That ability has been done successfully thousands of times. Usually not on a beach on the open ocean. Any E-3 that works in that MOS/ Rate could have foreseen how stupid that was.
We have NOT had to deal with real Contested Logistics against a formidable enemy since WW2. And we WILL need it in the 1st and 2nd Island Chains. Ive heard it called "the tyranny of water" and "Tyranny of distance". Last March I met and listened to AF LtGen Jaqueline Van Ovost CG of Transportation Command. I believe she is over confident in the capability of her part of the puzzle. Airlift alone will NOT get the job.
We will need many different capabilities and partner Nations all working together toward a common goal. That in itself is "Integrated Deterrence".
We did it in WW2!
Great read!
Unfortunately we have failed to achieve "deterence" in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Bab El-Mandeb Straight. Iran using thier proxy Houthi have managed to essentially hijack shipping in the region and affect global trade. Simply using remote controlled airplanes, boats (calling them drones is a bit of a stretch) and homemade rockets. Add in the record breaking ballistic missile strikes by Iran on Israel and it is clear that they are NOT deterred. Endless pleas from The Biden Admin and Pentagon for us, our partners, and Israel to "not escalate" tensions. In my Military Mind, escalation occurred on Oct 7th 2023. Never mind 40+ years of Iran being a state sponsor of terror. And Israel eating rockets daily since the 1970's.
We recently had the USS Big Horn run aground and announcing to our enemies that if they take out an oiler (especially when its the only one in the AOR) they can cripple a Carrier Strike Group, Amphib Ready Group, Exped. Strike Group. It is a sign of weakness. Thats why deterrence isnt working. Thats how you lose a war.
The most important element of deterrence is the WILL TO FIGHT. When the enemy knows you wont strike hard and decisively, they know they have you by the balls.
So many very good points here. I may be scheduled to deliver a presentation on the importance of American Sea Power here locally, early next year. With your permission Bryan, I will shamelessly pitch this article and use elements thereof in my presentation. Properly attributed of course.
There are no original thoughts! Pillage away, shamelessly.
Brian - very well stated and sure you were superb in conveying the message
Thank you!
Well done Bryan.
Thank you, Shipmate!
Thanks for putting forward an honest assessment and analyses. Nothing to add to already excellent cooments. I appreciate the quality work you're doing to advise and inform the government and public. 👍
Thank you!
When I arrived at CincPacFlt in 1981 for a tour of duty my new boss, an O-5 EA-6B NFO, asked if I could state to him the mission of the Navy. The Commander was a great guy and rescued me from my deer in the headlights moment and told me, "Prompt and sustained combat operations at sea in support of national policy". I had 16 years in and was a Senior Chief. That was an "aha!" moment for me in realizing how clueless I was of big picture things. I think I was typical of my peers...Big Picture things just never percolated down to our level and maybe we were too busy to ask. But what a fun and rewarding tour that was.
The U S Navy must have sufficient logistic ships, craft, boats, aircraft, and vehicles (amphibious, all terrain etc,etc) to support the fleet, its bases and facilities, or face mission failure. Prompt, sustained, unrestricted, continuous lethal attrition by the enemy must met. Nowhere is safe. Ever. Si vis pachem...para bellum. We are not ready enough. War is, like winter in Alaska, inevitable. As is surprise, stupidity, lethal naivety, wishful thinking, and hubris. Otherwise, great speech to a great audience.
Great Speech Bryan. I hope they gave you a standing ovation and inundated you with questions about how we can reduce carrier strike group vulnerabilities (like adding 10 more and complicating the enemy's targeting)... Well done
Bryan, Excellent speech. Sarasota is my hometown, although it has grown so much I hardly recognize it anymore. I agree wholeheartedly with your analysis and think we must continue beat the drum for those who don't understand the criticality of our maritime interests. A couple of things that I continue to emphasize, especially for those in the Congress and Government that don't fully appreciate the value of forward deployed naval presence. First, regarding the continued criticality of Aircraft Carriers and their attendant strike group asserts, they not only bring naval presence in a very visible way that allow our political leadership send stabilizing messages to conflict areas of the world, they are the first responders in crisis. Long range strike assets from the US can't do that effectively. There is no option for the effective combat and strike capability out there. Second, the ESG of today is tremendously more capable than what you and I had available in the late 1990's and first part of this century. The F-35B alone as an addition to the LHA/LHD big deck adds a host of high tech capabilities they did not have before. This sea change in combat power, however creates additional force structure challenges as ESG's become greater threats. We need to add DDG included IAMD, ASW, and ASUW (to include anti surface/subsurface drones) to its defenses. Third, continued focus on force integration with our joint forces and especially our allied maritime partners is essential in all three areas of the world you discuss. It is the best way to mitigate the 150 ship shortage you highlight. It doesn't mean replace, it means short term mitigation. We are in a world today that will continue to expand in the complexity of maritime operations. We will need all the help we can get to support our national defense. Finally, to address the pervading ignorance and lack of experience we are witnessing in the Congress and parts of the Executive Branch we must counter the growing isolationist trends we are seeing. We must aggressively educate and promote people for elected office who have served in the military and understand its contributions to our National Defense. Bottom line: NATO is essential to our national defense and continued strengthening of our bilateral agreements with India-Pacific Allies remains critical. Better yet, developing strong multi-lateral ties in the Pacific will continue to improve our National Defense in the west. Press on. Continue the great work.
Bryan: With reference to your discussion on the mission of the Navy, I’d like to refer your readership to the DON’s Strategic Concept published in 1994, “Forward…From the Sea.” That document defined the Navy’s mission across the spectrum of crisis and conflict. The premium was deploying forward and demonstrating transoceanic reach and credible combat capability to friends and likely foes. It was meant to inform the Roles and Missions review, mandated by Congress at the time, and to move beyond “From the Sea” which had truncated our mission to Power projection and Littoral warfare.
As to the industrial base, I am familiar with our current capability and capacity. We will not improve either, absent a concerted effort to build commercial vessels, restoring our merchant marine, and encouraging more competition in the construction of warships. This will require reopenIng shuttered dual use shipyards and subsidizing commercial shipbuilding to offset domestic cost premiums. As important, perhaps in partnership with key states, we will have to make a national investment in apprentice programs for shipbuilders modeled on the Job Corps. Funding these priorities is a monumental challenge for a debt ridden economy, but we might draw on the misapplied billions in the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act for starters.
Philip Dur
RADM, USN ( ret.)
I expect you have expounded on how the Navy works with our allies' Navys. If so, I would like a repeat. Our world wide burden should not be ours alone to bear. The world is a big place.