Some Terrible, Ugly, Thoughts On Ukraine
No Good News Here
Ukraine President Zelensky addressed the Congress this morning in an impassioned speech in which he urged the US—as leader of the free world—to do more. I agree with him that the free world led by the US should do more. But there are limits, and it occurs to me that we need to reconcile ourselves to the very real possibility that the most likely outcome of this war is that Russia effectively destroys Ukrainian sovereignty and sets up some kind of puppet/client, and that the West continues to support an insurgency. This situation will continue for years, with Ukraine ceasing to be much of anything but a redux of 1980’s Afghanistan on a larger, more expensive scale in a country that was considerably more a part of the global system than Afghanistan ever was.
President Zelensky is an inspiring figure who is doing and saying everything he can to achieve the results he desires, which at this point is direct, military intervention by the West—meaning the United States. The great tragedy of his position and that of his country and people is that the United States simply cannot do this, because the risk of doing so is greater than the benefit. This response tweet by Emma Ashford lays out the situation pretty succinctly.
We are already deeply involved in a military conflict with an aggressive, nuclear power. Putin has embarked on a path that he thought would look differently than it does today, and that difference has been driven by the collective response of the US and its allies. How the next few years will look for Russia—specifically isolation and economic collapse—is utterly dependent upon the US and its allies STICKING TOGETHER and squeezing. No fly zones and American combat troops are not the answer here, as both represent direct military intervention. The terrible, horrible, utterly disgusting and regrettable truth is, that the death and starvation and pain of the Ukrainian people will continue until Vladimir Putin is dead or deposed. I wish it were not so, but if my wishes were persuasive, we’d have a bigger Navy and I’d be retired by now.
What more can we do?
Well, first of all, stop talking about what we are considering, especially when it comes to supplying military equipment. Period. End of story. The staff work in public being done by the Administration is ridiculous. Send it. Don’t send it. Stop talking about it.
The second thing we can do is to not only isolate Russia, but reinforce the strategic blunder Putin has made. It is time to dismiss the notion that NATO expansion caused this invasion. It didn’t. Historic Russian paranoia caused this, with five hundred years of evidence to back it up. We should do everything we can to encourage the people of Sweden and Finland to join NATO.
Next, we must build our own military power. All of it. Land, sea, air, space, and cyber. We must rebuild a powerful alliance for freedom that can cauterize Ukraine and deter China. I hate writing this, because what I am saying has real implications to the innocent people of Ukraine. But widening this war will have real implications for far more innocent people. We need to fence it off and keep up the squeeze. A big part of that squeeze is going to be a more powerful military presence in the region. Encouraging signs are springing up on Capitol Hill, and when even the head of the House Progressive Caucus predicts higher military spending, it is time to put the hammer down.
Representative Pramila Jayapal, Democrat of Washington and the head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, conceded that the current crisis had sapped momentum, at least for now, from efforts to slash military spending. “I do think Ukraine has just made it harder,” she said. “We had thought with the ending of the war in Afghanistan, we could push for a real reduction in the defense budget, and there will be another opportunity. But look, this is an epic battle.”
Putting aside the inanity of thinking we could reduce the defense budget as a result of Afghanistan (given the rise of China), I am encouraged by Jayapal’s ability to read the room.
I am not a foreign policy realist. Writing what boils down to "Ukraine is just going to have to suffer until the suffering stops” is not my go-to move. Every bone in my body says American military power could have an important, direct role in resolving this. But then I remember that I am more than just bones, that there is a brain at work too. And that brain tells me that the Russians are far less reserved about using nuclear weapons than we are, and that the potential for their use increases with each step up the ladder of escalation we take—and we’ve taken some serious ones already.
Amen
The US approach to clearly state what is being delivered in terms of hardware is actually well thought out. This way the Bear will know what caused their losses, while minimising the risk of escalation. It will make clear that the costs for Russia will rise over time, while it is also very clear that there is no direct involvement from the west.