After last week’s post, a significant number of new subscribers joined our merry band here at The Conservative Wahoo, but I need to make sure they know that this Substack will only occasionally be somewhere that I post Navy and National Security stuff. Mostly, this is an outlet for me to comment, opine, complain, analyze, criticize, and praise as the case may be on whatever I wish to address. So if you subscribed expecting a steady diet of all Navy, all the time, I hope you stay around, but I understand if you don’t. Now, onto today’s essay.
I honestly don’t know much about the debt ceiling, only that for some reason, it must occasionally be addressed in order that our country does not default on its debts. What happens when we default on our debts is also relatively unknown to me, although I have a feeling my military pension is wrapped up in there somewhere, at some point. Clearly, there are more catastrophic impacts out there, but I’m a little ignorant of just how all this shakes out.
I do not like living in a place where this kind of brinksmanship occurs on a fairly routine basis, where the party in power dearly wishes for the debt ceiling to be raised as the party out of power attempts to gain concessions from the party in power for doing so. This is yet another way that the messiness of our system is on full display. But the bottom line is that whether we like it or not, this IS our system. So when the President’s opening argument is “I will not negotiate with Republicans, we need a clean debt limit rise”, he is acting like a monarch, pure and simple. The House GOP (where this sort of thing must initially be worked out) has already passed a bill that raises the debt ceiling in exchange for a series of spending cuts/freezes. I don’t think Democrats thought the Speaker had that kind of muscle, but he got the bill through. OF COURSE the President doesn’t like it. OF COURSE a Democratic Senate won’t like it. But the Republicans have an entering argument that reflects a majority in the House, and it must be taken seriously. Clearly, the President has thrown his “no negotiation” position in the dumpster, and if he wishes for the debt ceiling to be raised, he is going to have to give on spending.
So are the Republicans, and here is where things get a little dicey. It is hard to conceive of a compromise with the Administration in which the Speaker can obtain a majority in the House with just his GOP membership. The margin of passage of their existing bill was slim already, and the process of compromise will invariably turn some Republicans against it. This isn’t terrible, as the process of compromise will also invariably cause Democrats in swing districts or in Red-states to be willing to vote for such a bill. There is a chance that the Speaker-By-The-Skin-of-His-Teeth may ultimately have to support a bill that gains a majority because of Democratic support. This would clearly alienate some of the more extreme members of his conference, which could weaken his hold on the Speaker’s gavel.
The thing is, while I hate the brinksmanship, if the negotiation results in the debt ceiling being raised and some spending being trimmed, I’m all for it. Mostly.
Because if one of the measures for getting to an acceptable majority in the House is to freeze or hobble defense spending, we will be putting ourselves in an untenable position. The last time we were in this place, Congress and the President agreed to constrain defense spending for ten straight years, which just so happened to coincide with the rise of China as our main strategic competitor. Repeating this error would an obvious sign to the Chinese of our exhaustion and our unfitness for world leadership.
There is a lot on the line here. There must be a way.
And Now, Summer
Months ago, I looked out at my long range plan and saw that March, April, and May were going to be brutal work, work travel, and personal travel months. I am prone to looking ahead like that, which is a bit of a double-edge sword, in that I enter such periods with clear-eyed knowledge of the slog, but I invariably whinge about it along the way (ask my sainted paramour Catherine). Would that I were more stoic.
Only two hours ago, I called “FINEX” on the slog, as I arrived home from the festivities associated with older daughter Hope’s graduation from Loyola University MD. Younger daughter Hannah graduated from Tulane this weekend, and Catherine was there for that celebration. I couldn’t be more proud of our girls—they are a joy.
I have been informed by my Episcopalian partner in crime that if the child is female, she gets two godmothers (and one godfather). Vice versa for male children. This practice is odd to someone raised Catholic. Catherine and her late husband decided to raise the girls Episcopal (he was a member of The One True Church, along with yours truly), and she selected a group of fantastic godparents who joined us in Baltimore and New Orleans. My Baltimore crew is made up of some of the best people in my life, and they made Hope feel like the biggest deal going. I’m sure the New Orleans crowd did the same, as they are also wonderful people. The last event for me today was dropping some folks off at the airport (BWI, hon), and then I headed home. Catherine has one more event today in New Orleans, and then I’ll get her at the airport tomorrow. We’ll be at full strength for two weeks, when Dash 2 heads off to start her first post-college job.
All of this is to say that summer officially begins for me today. Of course, it isn’t like childhood summers. I still have a job and responsibilities. But I planned out a slower-paced summer this year, one with fewer obligations outside of work. I live in a summer fantasy-land on the Eastern Shore, and I aim to enjoy it this year. Last summer, we went to Scotland for eight days—and while it was a SPECTACULAR trip, I found myself at times looking at the Easton MD June weather (80’s sunny) and wondering why I was in the high 50’s rain. I will have no such experiences this summer.
I will go see my ageing parents. I’ll celebrate nephew Liam’s graduation. And I will carve out time when friends with boats beckon. But other than that, I’ll work, and I will eat a lot of crabs and corn, watch the soy beans grow, paddleboard a bit, and hit a lot of golfing balls. I’ll keep you posted on how it goes.
Can't we separate negotiating a budget ( spending, taxes etc) that applies to the coming year (s) from paying for debts we've already incurred? At the moment it seems we're contemplating stiffing all kinds of companies ( etc) that agreed to and started performing services for us such as building infrastructure. We already agreed to spend money for ships, pay military retirements, Social Security and on and on. The time to reduce the amount of such spending was when the House and Senate passed previous budgets ( along with current and future budgets). What's happening now is politicians who were on the losing end of the last budget vote are trying to use this debit limit tool to reverse the will of the majority. We see this everywhere with the filibuster, gerrymandering etc.
I'd like to see the 14th amendment idea exercised
"Fourteenth Amendment Equal Protection and Other Rights
Section 4 Public Debt
The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned."
Or maybe, just maybe, constraints on defense spending will finally allow us to take Goldwater-Nichols out back and put it down?
More money for the Navy and Air Force, less for the Army.