We Will Live To Regret It

On The Implications Of Walking Away From Ukraine

The clown-car that is our legislative branch federal government continues to serve up healthy heapings of failure, delivering unto the American people exactly what they want (and deserve)—good and hard. That last part—the “deserve” line—is a direct response to those I hear/read saying that the American people deserve better than the government they have. This is of course, merde, as we have EXACTLY what we deserve. We are a petulant, selfish, and irresponsible people, and we have put into political authority representatives who well-represent these virtues.

The issue of the day is the continuing farce/theater of the absurd in which the Congress and the White House continue at loggerheads over a broad series of issues, the most salient of which are 1) appropriations bills 2) aid to Israel 3) aid to Ukraine and 4) immigration reform. Each party with a dog in the fight naturally wishes to get its way on its issue without giving in on other issues. Thus we have the White House and the Democrats in the Senate—who want appropriations, aid to Ukraine, and aid to Israel—but not more robust border protection, locking horns with the Senate GOP—who wants appropriations, aid to Ukraine, aid to Israel AND more robust border protection, while on the House side we have Democrats who want appropriations and aid to Ukraine, but who are ambivalent (some, hostile) about aid to Israel, and want FEWER border protections, while the House GOP is 90% circled around appropriations, aid to Israel, aid to Ukraine, and greater border security, while 10% of its members are hostile to Ukrainian aid (see: impeachment of the Cheeto-Jesus round one), want to close the border, and don’t care about appropriations. This 10% is effectively holding the rest of the legislative branch by the short hairs, as they hold the future of the Speaker of the House in their hands—and they know it.

The big loser in all of this is American national security. Put aside the carnage that the continuing resolution band-aids cause to research and development and new starts in the Department of Defense, the plain truth of the matter is that the Ukrainian people have been waging war against one of our two strategic adversaries in which that adversary has been hobbled—without the loss of a single American service member and for pennies on the dollar as compared to any comparable effort undertaken by the American military. American national security has been significantly advanced by Ukraine, as they have made great strides to remove Russian adventurism as a threat in the heart of Europe. If we cannot get our domestic political house in order, one of two things will happen and neither will be good for America.

In the first instance, we cease to support Ukraine and our European partners stand tall, and this united front finishes the job and removes Russia as a conventional threat. In this alternative future, not only have we utterly destroyed any reason to believe that we are a trusted ally, but the very rationale for allying with us would be gone. Our status as the leader of the free world is utterly destroyed. I realize that for some people, this would be wonderful. Hell, what’s not to like. We save our money. Europe finally pulls its weight. Russia is neutered. Ukraine is victorious. If you think things in Europe are up in the air now, think about a Europe where the views and interests of the United States are simply not considered. This is not good for American security, and it is not good for the American economy. The decline we now try to exquisitely manage would only accelerate.

Now, let’s consider a scenario where we back out and Russia wins, by which I mean Ukraine either ceases to exist as a sovereign nation or is set up as a Russian puppet. Having walked away from Ukrainian defense, we would (as in the first scenario), cease to be seen as a trustworthy ally. Russia would emerge badly bruised, but set up for decades of power in central Europe and positioned to threaten neighbors over which it has territorial ambitions as clear as those pursued in Ukraine (see Baltics, Poland, Finland). As NATO would effectively be finished as a military alliance with a Russian victory, there would be little to stand in Russia’s way save for whatever alliances spring up in the NATO-less vacuum. The US would have little or no role in European conventional deterrence or defense. As in the first scenario, the decline now try exquisitely to manage—would intensify.

The bottom line is that our future as the leader of the free world depends on seeing to it that Russia is defeated in Ukraine, and seeing to it that Russia is defeated in Ukraine is going to take continued American arms, intelligence, and money. When we look back twenty years from now under either of the above scenarios—we will be doing so from the position of a wasted power no longer capable of protecting our interests abroad and dependent on others for a large portion of our security. The time is now to win the future, and that means getting our heads out of our…posteriors and reaching political compromise, in which US national security—along with Israeli and Ukrainian national security—emerge along with enhanced border security and immigration restrictions.

One caution though—I do not think the 10% dead enders in the House GOP are the least bit interested in reaching an agreement with Biden on the border. They want the issue to run on in ‘24, and they realize that the cost of reaching such an accommodation would be that they have to fold on their opposition to Ukrainian support. This lunatic fringe of the GOP has moved so far from Reagan Republicanism that they are happy to support Russia. Our nation is made less secure by these people, and the sooner they are politically undercut, the better.

The Last Shot in New Hampshire

Tuesday represents the last shot this country has at not having to redo the 2020 election. If Nikki Haley wins in New Hampshire, she lives to fight another day and the uphill battle to win the GOP nomination will continue. If she loses, she will not win the nomination through the primary process.

The thing is though, Haley should not drop out if she loses in NH. In fact, she should not drop out at any point. She should keep her candidacy going until the convention, because of two things. The first is that Trump is a cheeseburger away from a coronary, and the second is that he may be convicted and jailed before then. These are longshots, but they are worth here staying right where she is to pick up the ball and run with it if the law finally catches up with Trump.

A victory for Haley in NH would be just what this race needs, because for one thing, it would unleash all of the terrors that exist in Trump’s soul. He simply would not be able to contain himself. Let’s face it. One of the reasons for the Trump renaissance over the past year is that RELATIVELY speaking, he’s stayed out of the news. Also—one of the more interesting theories I’ve heard on social media is that de-platforming him has actually worked to his benefit, because far fewer people have been exposed to the really over the top stuff he puts out on his own platform. I just don’t think he’d be able to continue with this Low-T campaign if she winds up beating him in NH.

But if Trump wins, you can pretty much piss on the fire and call in the dogs.