And Now, Things Get Interesting

A Race, If the Democrats Really Want One

I wrote an entire Monday morning Substack yesterday (Saturday) and then deleted it as self-congratulatory and without much in the way of added value to any of your day(s). Today, I strolled around my little slice of heaven taking in the Plein Air Festival watching my inamorata scoop up some works from one of her favorite local artists while wondering about just what it was I was going to write. I got home and sat down in front of my computer to this:

My day was made! Not only would half of the unacceptable candidates running for President be dropping out of the race, but I now had something to write about!

Seriously, this could not have been an easy decision. Joe Biden’s obviously a proud man, and this must have really hurt. That said, it was the right decision, although made at the wrong time, as a full primary process would have been in his party’s REAL best interests.

Now, the Democrats have to replace him. There will be INCREDIBLE pressure from many quarters to bandwagon behind the Vice President, Kamala Harris, and it appears that the President has already offered his endorsement. This is a mistake, as she is an unskilled politician, nearly as unpopular as her boss, and a virtual certainty to lose both the popular vote and the Electoral College. She was soundly drummed out of the 2020 Presidential Race and was invited onto the ticket primarily for identitarian reasons. The people pressuring Biden to leave the race KNOW this, and hopefully they will guide the party to an open convention that will produce a strong, national candidate to take on the former President. After all, they’ve toppled a President, pissing off a weak Vice President will not be an issue. I think Biden staying in office reinforces her weakness.

As I wrote here a couple of weeks ago, a truly open convention would rivet the country’s attention (I expect the country to be pretty riveted prior to the convention if suitable candidates rise up to challenge Harris), sucking a great deal of attention from the Trump campaign. I’m all for that. The race was over, and a man I consider to be beneath the office was on his way to an interrupted second term. Perhaps the Democratic Party can pull and inside straight here and nominate someone sane, normal, young (enough), and civil, someone with whom I will disagree on 90% of policy matters but who will not disgrace the office. Do I think this will happen? No. I think the Democrats will get behind the Vice President and Trump will get 350 electoral college votes.

But whatever happens, I’m now far more interested in a Presidential race I’d given up on. Now give me Larry Hogan, a Republican Senate, and a GOP Majority in the House large enough to nullify the Freedom Caucus’ “Heckler’s Veto” and maybe, just maybe, we can get on with things.

So, What Does All Of This Mean For The Navy?

I sorta have a one-track mind, and when faced with a truly historical moment in the history of our Republic (sitting Presidents don’t drop out of races all that often), I think about how this political earthquake might impact my beloved United States Navy. And the answer is…not much.

If the Democrats pull it together and nominate a normie who can win, he or she will likely face GOP majorities in the House and Senate, and so insufficient budget submissions will continue and be made somewhat more sufficient by a Congress that clearly wants more. In other words, more of the same of what we had for the last four years.

If Trump wins, navalists will get suckered into once again thinking that because the President SAYS he wants a bigger Navy, a bigger Navy will happen. The reason we didn’t get a bigger Navy out of the first Trump Administration is NOT because he didn’t SAY he wanted one, but because he didn’t DO anything to bring it about. I do believe that without a war that jumpstarts things, the more likely path to a larger Navy is through a Trump Presidency. But larger navies don’t happen without direct, consistent Presidential support, and Trump’s ability to concentrate long enough to bring one about is not something to depend upon.

My guess is that four years from now, we’ll have fiddlef****d four more years away.

Speaking of fiddlef*****g, today, 22 July, is the seventeen month anniversary of President Biden’s signing into law of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (or NDAA, the legislation that created the National Commission on the Future of the Navy. This Commission (to which I am appointed) was to conclude its work 21 days ago (1 July) and present its findings to the Congress. The Commission was never constituted, as it took nearly the entire commission mandate for members to be appointed, and neither party got around to appointing their “Co-Leads”. And so the Commission never met, never did what Congress created it to do.

In the 2025 version of the NDAA, both chambers have extended the mandate of the Commission, the House until July 1 2025 and the Senate to January 15, 2026. Presumably these differences will be ironed out in conference (this fall), and maybe, just maybe, the Commission will someday meet and report out its findings.

It is the reporting out of findings that occasioned the delay in constituting the Commission, as it seems fairly obvious that there was little appetite from the White House to have a steaming turd dropped into the punchbowl this summer, as would almost certainly have happened had the Commission adhered to its original timeline. Truth be told, the same turd would have had to be dropped into the punchbowl during the previous administration, as the Navy’s ills are not the province of either party or any one administration, but of both parties and all administrations since 1989. Both parties forgot about the Navy’s importance in peace and war, both parties believed that to some extent, capability obviates capacity, and both parties built only enough ships to keep an industrial base on life support.

We are now behind, and there are no “magic beans”. We need to build more. We need to raise shipyard wages. We need to spend more on weapons and sensors. We need to spend more on unmanned capability. Because we waited to long to face our pathologies, we need to do everything, everywhere, all at once. Winter is coming.